Wiz Realty's Blog

- More than 1.5 million homes have been lost to foreclosure, according to the Center for Responsible Lending.
- Goldman Sachs is projecting 13 million foreclosures of all types during the next five years.
- One in 10 homeowners are late with mortgage payments, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
- Owners owe more than the home is worth in nearly one in five homes, according to First American Core Logic.

Currently, Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans comprise more than 30% of the entire home-loan market. But as some of those insured loans have defaulted, the FHA loan-guarantee fund has slipped below the Congressionally mandated 2% level. As a result, some lawmakers are suggesting that FHA loans need to be more expensive to obtain. A House bill, the FHA Taxpayer Protection Act of 2009, would increase the minimum down payment required to obtain an FHA loan to 5% from 3.5%. That, sponsor Rep. Scott Garrett, R, N.J., believes, would make borrowers more committed to maintaining their mortgages.  Almost 90% of FHA purchase loans issued between January and August 2009 had loan-to-value (LTV) ratios of 96 or higher, according to written testimony from Robert Story, chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association.  That amounts to a very small commitment on the parts of buyers.  "We have made the decision to exercise our authority to increase the up-front cash that a borrower has to bring to the table in an FHA-backed loan -- to make sure that FHA borrowers have more 'skin in the game' and a stronger equity position in their loans," said Housing and Urban Development secretary Shaun Donovan.  Still, he added, "FHA is not 'the next subprime' as some have suggested."

Early sales results for the month released today showed many merchants did not get the big boost they were seeking from Black Friday.  Thomson Reuters, which tracks monthly same-store sales for 30 chains like Target, Gap and J.C. Penney, said 15 of the retailers in its Same Store Sales Index have reported their results. Of those 15, 85% missed analysts' sales estimates while 15% beat expectations.  Children's Place, a seller of clothing and accessories for young kids, suffered a 13% drop in its same-store sales versus expectations for a 1% increase.  Sales at another youth merchandise chain Abercrombie & Fitch slumped 17%.  Elsewhere, total sales at No. 1 warehouse club operator Costco rose 6% compared to a forecast for an increase of 8.1%.  Same-store sales are a key measure of a retailer's performance and measure sales at stores open at least a year.  Overall, the firm has expected November sales for the group to grow 2.1% compared to a steep 7.8% decline last year.  However, the much softer-than-expected early numbers prompted Thomson Reuters retail analyst Jharonne Martis to say that November's performance will most likely be worse than expected.  November is a critical month for retailers since it marks the start of the year-end holiday shopping season. November and December together can account for 50% or more of merchants' annual sales and profits for the full year.

The Obama administration laid out final guidelines on Monday that should make it easier for some financially troubled borrowers to sell their homes.  The guidelines are designed to encourage the use of short sales, and it also makes it easier for borrowers to voluntarily transfer ownership of properties through a "deed in lieu of foreclosure."  Under the plan, borrowers will receive $1,500 from the government if they sell their homes for less than the amount of their mortgages. Mortgage-servicing companies will also receive $1,000 for each completed short sale. The program is open to borrowers who may be eligible for the government's loan-modification program but don't end up qualifying, or are delinquent on their modification, or request a short sale or deed-in-lieu transaction.  The short-sale program is the latest addition to the Obama administration's $75 billion foreclosure-prevention plan, which includes incentives for mortgage companies and investors to rework troubled   loans. The government first said in May that it would include short sales in the program, but it has taken months to finalize the details.  Under the new guidelines, second-mortgage holders can receive up to $3,000 of the sales proceeds in exchange for releasing their liens. Investors who hold the first mortgages, meanwhile, can collect up to $1,000 from the government for allowing such payments.  Borrowers who complete a short sale under the program must be "fully released" from future liability for the debt, according to the guidelines.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in an interview with Reuters home prices will resume their decline by early next year as another flood of foreclosures hits.  Home prices, as measured by the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, will trough in the third quarter of 2010 after declining 38 percent, Zandi said.  The index peaked in the second quarter of 2006 and hit a trough in the first quarter of 2009, a drop of about 32 percent. Home prices in many regions have been rising, but that's because foreclosure sales fell over the summer and fall as mortgage servicers tried to put stressed homeowners into the Home Affordable Modification Program and other modification plans.  "This lull in foreclosures sales has resulted in the price gains in the past few months," he said.  Zandi said 7.5 million foreclosure sales will have taken place between 2006 and 2011. The majority of these sales, however, have not emerged yet, with 4.8 million foreclosure sales expected between 2009 and 2011.

Over the past few months, there have been some signs that the U.S. housing market had begun to stabilize. Some economists have even said that the market bottomed as early as the spring of this year. Let’s look at the reasons for the optimism.

Industry experts were cheering October’s new-home sales figures, which easily beat estimates by climbing 6.2%. Prices, which had been in free fall, dropped by the smallest margin in nearly a year. (The S & P Case-Schiller Index, which only tracks 20 markets suggests prices have been increasing for 5 months running). The National Association of Realtors reported last monday that sales of previously occupied homes in October jumped 10.1% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.1 million, the highest level since February 2007. The number of home listed for sale nationally was 3.57 million at the end of October, down 3.7% from a month earlier. Much of the sales activity was driven by buyers who rushed to claim the first-time home buyer’s tax credit before it was to expire on November 30th of this year. The number of homes for sale in September was 3.63 million, down 15% from a year earlier.

Mortgage rates have been at historically low levels. Mortgage backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae rose to their highest level of the year last week buoyed by strong investor demand. Risk premiums on the bonds, which measure their yield (moving inversely to the price), fell as low as 1.24 perceentage points above the yields of comparable Treasuries last Wednesday. The previous narrowest level was 1.29 in May. These dynamics have created an average rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages at only 4.78%, which matches a record low from April. That rate was down from 4.83 the previous week and 5.97% a year ago.

If we look at the housing market dynamics more closely, however, it appears there is a good chance that government intervention may be creating a bubble of its own, artificially and unsustainably propping the market up.

Consider this: The average single family home price in the United States is $178,000. Most mortgages made today are guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration which requires only a 3.5% downpayment (less in several circumstances) which is $6,230. With the $8,000 first-time home buyer’s tax credit, the government (the taxpayer) is paying people to buy houses (It has been estimated that 80% of the purchases that occurred using the credit would have occurred anyway so the “real cost” of the economic incentive to create a sale is $40,000, not $8,000). Buyers are utilizing artificially low interest rates as the Fed is buying a significant percentage of offered Treasuries to keep rates down. Without this quantitative easing, mortgage rates would be much higher. The Fed is also buying much of the residential mortgage-backed securities that are being sold. Between Fannie, Freddie and the FHA, the government( the taxpayer) presently guarantees 92% of all home mortgages in the country. To top it off, the government (the taxpayer) is also purchasing a substantial amount of these very mortgages that we, um – I mean the government, guarantees. Does this sound vaguely familiar to you? Isn’t this type of shell game that got us into this mess in the first place?

We must not forget that the catalyst for most of the stress in the housing market was government policy aimed at increasing the homeownership rate through lowering mortgage lending standards. These policies began in 1977 with the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) which targeted banks and encouraged them to increase lending in low- and moderate-income communities. From 1977 to 1991, $9 billion in CRA lending committments had been announced.

In 1992, congress passed the Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act, also known as the GSE Act (ironically, the name sounds so benign). The objective here was to force Fannie and Freddie to purchase loans that had been made by banks; loans that were made as part of the CRA. The GSEs had to do this to comply with the law’s “affordable housing” requirements. Since then, Fannie and Freddie have purchased over $6 trillion of these mortgages. The goal of community groups, of forcing Fannie and Freddie to loosen their underwriting standards in order to facilitate the purchase of loans made under the CRA, was achieved. Congress inserted language into the law encouraging the GSEs to accept downpayments as low as 5% or less, ignore impaired credit if the blotch was more than a year old, and otherwise loosen their lending guidelines.

The result of these loosened credit standards, and a mandate to make “affordable-housing” loans, created a massive pool of high risk lending that ultimately drowned the GSEs, overwhelmed the housing finance system, and caused an expected $1 trillion in mortgage loan losses by the GSEs, banks, and other investors and guarantors. Most tragically, there is an expectation that, at the end of this cycle, the U.S. will have seen 10 million or more home foreclosures.

The refundable tax credit, available even if a family has no taxable income, will enable many more purchasers to buy a home, even if they are not qualified. But it could also bankrupt the FHA and, by doing so, would damage an already weak housing market.

This credit was initially available only to first-time buyers with a combined income of $150,000 or less ($75,000 for individuals). In 2009, about 40% of all first time buyers used the credit, so extending it was strongly supported by residential real estate brokers, home builders and their congressional allies. The recently passed extension (until April of 2010) makes the credit available, not only to first time buyers but, also to those who have owned a home for at least five years. In addition, it raises the maximum income for a qualified buyer to $225,000.

The first-time home buyers tax credit is expected to cost the Treasury about $15 billion in 2009, more than twice the projected cost when Congress approved the stimulus package (is it really hard to believe that the government could underestimate the cost of the programs it implements? – watch out healtcare reform!).

The problem here is that, as we discussed above, the FHA insures mortgages with such low downpayments that it can be funded completely by the refundable tax credit. Owners who don’t invest their own money into a house are much more likely to default on the mortgage. The FHA is already looking at a number of serious problems. Two weeks ago, the agency reported that its cash reserves, which are federally mandated to be no lower than 2% (down from 3% last fall) of its portfolio, had dropped to 0.53%.

The deteriorating quality of the FHA’s mortgage portfolio is a critical challenge to the housing market and the federal budget. A recent government audit concluded that the FHA would run out of money in 2011 and need a federal bailout if a recovery is not swift.

Presently, the percentage of U.S. homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth swelled to about 25% according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. Moody’s.com pegs this percentage at nearly 33%. Either way, this dynamic threatens prospects for a sustained housing recovery. These so-called underwater mortgages present a roadblock to a housing recovery as these properties are more likely to fall into foreclosure and get placed on the market, adding to an already bloated supply.

Over 40% of borrowers who took out a mortgage in 2006, when home prices peaked, are under water. In some parts of the country, home prices have dropped so much that borrowers who purchased homes five years ago now have negative equity. Even recent bargain hunters have been hit as 11% of borrowers who took out mortgages in 2009 already owe more than their homes are worth. Borrowers with negative equity are more likely to default and, today, about 7.5 million households are 30 days or more behind on their mortgage payments or are in foreclosure.

This level of negative equity has some economists projecting that housing won’t really bottom out until 2011. There are additional factors that lead to their conclusions.

The home sale statistics that are presented by the NAR and Commerce Department exaggerate activity as they double count some sales. If a foreclosure occurs and the bank sells the property to an investor at an auction who subsequently resells the house to someone who intends to live there, that counts as two sales. Additionally, “seasonally adjusted” numbers also will exaggerate the real level of activity.

Moreover, most of the sales activity is taking place in the areas which have been hit the hardest such as California, Southern Florida, Arizona and Las Vegas where we see the highest level of distress and very cheap condos, co-ops and single family residences.

Home prices are measured in three different ways: 1) median income to median sales price, 2) the cost of owning versus the cost of renting, and 3) the total housing stock value as a percentage of GDP. If we consider these three different methods of measuring home prices and affordability, it is possible to conclude that home prices have another 10% – 15% to adjust before the market actually hits its natural bottom.

All of the government intervention has prevented the market from hitting its natural bottom. No one wants to see people displaced but artificially propping the market up only makes things take longer to correct and simply delays the inevitable. The American consumer has had a long-held taboo against walking away from their home, but this crisis seems to be eroding that.

The Fannie and Freddie bailouts have already cost us $112 billion (and counting). How much will the FHA bailout cost? If housing values don’t recover, or the FHA cannot outrun its problems, the government audit suggests that FHA could ask for $1.6 billion by 2012. judging from history, that is probably a low-ball estimate.

Congress probably doesnt mind, however, because these liabilities are technically off budget, until they aren’t. i certainly hope the housing market recovers quickly but there appear to be many hurdles to overcome before this can happen.

While more than 650,000 borrowers have been given trial mortgage modifications under the plan, few borrowers have received permanent modifications. Many borrowers complain that it is difficult to get a permanent fix even once they have made trial payments; some have been required to send in duplicate paperwork or even ended up further behind on their mortgage payments.  For borrowers who do receive a trial modification, few are becoming permanent. Some borrowers can't make the required payments during the trial period, mortgage companies say, often because the reduced payment still isn't low enough or they have suffered another financial setback.  In other cases, borrowers in the trial program aren't providing a hardship affidavit and other necessary documents or the paperwork doesn't match the information provided verbally. In still other cases, the loan may not pass a "net present value test" used to determine whether a modification is less costly to the lender or investor
than a foreclosure. 

The Wall Street Journal points to one couple who are actually worse off because of the program: Jennifer and James Pugliese, of Scranton, Pa., were struggling, but still current on their mortgage when Litton Loan Servicing offered them a trial modification that reduced their loan payments by nearly 50% to $758. But after making successful trial payments, the couple was turned down for a final modification. Because the trial payments are considered partial payments if the modification fails, the Puglieses are now more than $5,000 behind on their mortgage; their credit score dropped after Litton reported to the credit bureau that the couple had entered the Obama program. Meanwhile, the number of borrowers falling behind on their loan payments continues to outpace the administration's efforts to help them. Roughly 1.56 million loans that were current in March were at least 60 days past due in October, according to LPS Applied Analytics. That's more than double the number of trial modifications. 

Research firm First American CoreLogic says 23% of Americans with mortgages owe more than their home is worth.  That's 10.7 million U.S. mortgages, or almost 1 in 4, and another 2.3 million homeowners are within 5% of negative territory.  Home prices have fallen so far that 5.3 million U.S. households are tied to mortgages at least 20% higher than their home's value, the First American report said. More than 520,000 of these borrowers have received a notice of default, according to First American.  Most U.S. homeowners still have some equity, and nearly 24 million owner-occupied homes don't have any mortgage, according to the Census Bureau.  The majority of underwater mortgages are heavily concentrated in five states that have particularly suffered from the housing bust: Nevada, at 65%; Arizona, at 48%; Florida, at 45%; Michigan, at 37%; and California, at 35%. Negative equity, also called an "underwater" or "upside down" mortgage, has become more common as home values plumme
t, and the numbers are closely watched because borrowers who are underwater are more likely to be foreclosed.

These five states have been hit especially hard because of a high rate of prime loans that went bad. Some of those loans were option-adjustable rate mortgages, and when the accumulated debt reaches a certain point -- usually 10% to 25% more than the original principal -- the option-ARMs loans are recast into fixed-rate mortgages. When that happens, many borrowers cannot afford the new payments.  But mortgage troubles are not limited to the unemployed. About 588,000 borrowers defaulted on mortgages last year even though they could afford to pay -- more than double the number in 2007, according to a study by Experian and consulting firm Oliver Wyman. "The American consumer has had a long-held taboo against walking away from the home, and this crisis seems to be eroding that," the study said.

Only a tiny percentage of troubled homeowners have received permanent modifications under President Obama's Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), raising concerns about the effectiveness of the $75 billion effort.  Fewer than 5% of the trial modifications on loans owned or guaranteed by Freddie Mac were converted to long-term adjustments as of Sept. 30.  More broadly, the figures are even lower. As of Sept. 1, only 1.26% of all trial adjustments were made permanent after three months, reported the Congressional Oversight Panel, which monitors the government's use of bailout funds.  The preliminary data, which has not been widely reported, underscores the next big problem facing the government's effort: Officials have leaned on banks to offer more homeowners trial modifications, but the real test will be whether homeowners will receive lasting help. 

"No one is really sure why the conversion rate is so low," said Mike Zoller, assistant economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We're concerned these loans will eventually become foreclosures."  Guy Cecela, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication, says, "Everyone is going to be shocked at the low conversion rates from trial modifications to permanent modifications."  The president's program "won't result in a significant number of loans being modified and won't put a significant dent in foreclosure rates."

In a lead story, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) paints a dismal picture of the housing market in 2010.  Uncertainty over the extension of a home-buyer tax credit sent new-home starts in October crashing down a full 10.6% from September, and starts of single-family houses fell 6.8%.   That's the lowest level since April, the Commerce Department said. This news suggests that foreclosures are not only going to keep rolling in, but that they may actually increase.  Richard Dugas,  chief executive of Pulte Homes Inc., the nation's largest home builder, warned investors: "As we look out to 2010, we are expecting difficult conditions to continue."  Wednesday's data prompted some economists to revise their fourth-quarter forecasts down slightly. Macroeconomic Advisers moved its GDP estimate down to 3% from 3.2% and Nomura Securities predicts 3.4% growth, down from 3.6%. The data adds to the suggestion "that the recovery is a little bit rickety," said Zach Pandl, an economist from Nomura.  Given that 3.4% of U.S. households -- or about 1.9 million homeowners -- are 120 days or more overdue on their payments, and that millions of homes are expected to go through foreclosure over the next few years, adding to supply, it's a fair bet that foreclosure problem won't be gone anytime soon.